Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: People who are incarcerated are at high risk of developing tuberculosis. We aimed to estimate the annual global, regional, and national incidence of tuberculosis among incarcerated populations from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: We collected and aggregated data for tuberculosis incidence and prevalence estimates among incarcerated individuals in published and unpublished literature, annual tuberculosis notifications among incarcerated individuals at the country level, and the annual number of incarcerated individuals at the country level. We developed a joint hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression framework to simultaneously model tuberculosis incidence, notifications, and prevalence from 2000 to 2019. Using this model, we estimated trends in absolute tuberculosis incidence and notifications, the incidence and notification rates, and the case detection ratio by year, country, region, and globally. FINDINGS: In 2019, we estimated a total of 125 105 (95% credible interval [CrI] 93 736-165 318) incident tuberculosis cases among incarcerated individuals globally. The estimated incidence rate per 100 000 person-years overall was 1148 (95% CrI 860-1517) but varied greatly by WHO region, from 793 (95% CrI 430-1342) in the Eastern Mediterranean region to 2242 (1515-3216) in the African region. Global incidence per 100 000 person-years between 2000 and 2012 among incarcerated individuals decreased from 1884 (95% CrI 1394-2616) to 1205 (910-1615); however, from 2013 onwards, tuberculosis incidence per 100 000 person-years was stable, from 1183 (95% CrI 876-1596) in 2013 to 1148 (860-1517) in 2019. In 2019, the global case detection ratio was estimated to be 53% (95% CrI 42-64), the lowest over the study period. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates suggest a high tuberculosis incidence rate among incarcerated individuals globally with large gaps in tuberculosis case detection. Tuberculosis in incarcerated populations must be addressed with interventions specifically tailored to improve diagnoses and prevent transmission as a part of the broader global tuberculosis control effort. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Infant BCG vaccination and risk of pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis throughout the life course: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: BCG vaccines are given to more than 100 million children every year, but there is considerable debate regarding the effectiveness of BCG vaccination in preventing tuberculosis and death, particularly among older children and adults. We therefore aimed to investigate the age-specific impact of infant BCG vaccination on tuberculosis (pulmonary and extrapulmonary) development and mortality. METHODS: In this systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Embase without language restrictions for case-contact cohort studies of tuberculosis contacts published between Jan 1, 1998, and April 7, 2018. Search terms included "mycobacterium tuberculosis", "TB", "tuberculosis", and "contact". We excluded cohort studies that did not provide information on BCG vaccination or were done in countries that did not recommend BCG vaccination at birth. Individual-level participant data for a prespecified list of variables, including the characteristics of the exposed participant (contact), the index case, and the environment, were requested from authors of all eligible studies. Our primary outcome was a composite of prevalent (diagnosed at or within 90 days of baseline) and incident (diagnosed more than 90 days after baseline) tuberculosis in contacts exposed to tuberculosis. Secondary outcomes were pulmonary tuberculosis, extrapulmonary tuberculosis, and mortality. We derived adjusted odds ratios (aORs) using mixed-effects, binary, multivariable logistic regression analyses with study-level random effects, adjusting for the variable of interest, baseline age, sex, previous tuberculosis, and whether data were collected prospectively or retrospectively. We stratified our results by contact age and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020180512. FINDINGS: We identified 14 927 original records from our database searches. We included participant-level data from 26 cohort studies done in 17 countries in our meta-analysis. Among 68 552 participants, 1782 (2·6%) developed tuberculosis (1309 [2·6%] of 49 686 BCG-vaccinated participants vs 473 [2·5%] of 18 866 unvaccinated participants). The overall effectiveness of BCG vaccination against all tuberculosis was 18% (aOR 0·82, 95% CI 0·74-0·91). When stratified by age, BCG vaccination only significantly protected against all tuberculosis in children younger than 5 years (aOR 0·63, 95% CI 0·49-0·81). Among contacts with a positive tuberculin skin test or IFNγ release assay, BCG vaccination significantly protected against tuberculosis among all participants (aOR 0·81, 95% CI 0·69-0·96), participants younger than 5 years (0·68, 0·47-0·97), and participants aged 5-9 years (0·62, 0·38-0·99). There was no protective effect among those with negative tests, unless they were younger than 5 years (0·54, 0·32-0·90). 14 cohorts reported on whether tuberculosis was pulmonary or extrapulmonary (n=57 421). BCG vaccination significantly protected against pulmonary tuberculosis among all participants (916 [2·2%] in 41 119 vaccinated participants vs 334 [2·1%] in 16 161 unvaccinated participants; aOR 0·81, 0·70-0·94) but not against extrapulmonary tuberculosis (106 [0·3%] in 40 318 vaccinated participants vs 38 [0·2%] in 15 865 unvaccinated participants; 0·96, 0·65-1·41). In the four studies with mortality data, BCG vaccination was significantly protective against death (0·25, 0·13-0·49). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that BCG vaccination at birth is effective at preventing tuberculosis in young children but is ineffective in adolescents and adults. Immunoprotection therefore needs to be boosted in older populations. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Sustaining communicable disease elimination efforts in the Americas in the wake of COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted implementation of health interventions and set back priority programs aiming to control and eliminate communicable diseases. At the same time, the pandemic has opened up opportunities to expedite innovations in health service delivery to increase effectiveness and position health on the development and political agendas of leaders and policy makers. In this context, we present an integrated, sustainable approach to accelerate elimination of more than 35 communicable diseases and related conditions in the region of the Americas. The Elimination Initiative promotes a life-course, person-centred approach based on four dimensions - preventing new infections, ending mortality and morbidity, and preventing disability - and four critical lines of action including strengthening health systems integration and service delivery, strengthening health surveillance and information systems, addressing environmental and social determinants of health, and furthering governance, stewardship, and finance. We present key actions and operational considerations according to each line of action that countries can take advantage of to further advance disease elimination in the region.

The escalating tuberculosis crisis in central and South American prisons.

In the past decade, tuberculosis incidence has declined in much of the world, but has risen in central and South America. It is not yet clear what is driving this reversal of progress in tuberculosis control. Since 2000, the incarcerated population in central and South America has grown by 206%, the greatest increase in the world. Over the same period, notified tuberculosis cases among the incarcerated population (hereinafter termed persons deprived of their liberty [PDL], following the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights) have risen by 269%. In both central and South America, the rise of disease among PDL more than offsets tuberculosis control gains in the general population. Tuberculosis is increasingly concentrated among PDL; currently, 11% of all notified tuberculosis cases in central and South America occur among PDL who comprise less than 1% of the population. The extraordinarily high risk of acquiring tuberculosis within prisons creates a health and human rights crisis for PDL that also undermines wider tuberculosis control efforts. Controlling tuberculosis in this region will require countries to take urgent measures to prioritise the health of PDL.

Characterizing Shigella species distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility to ciprofloxacin and nalidixic acid in Latin America between 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: Shigellosis is the second leading cause of diarrheal death globally. The global burden has been complicated by the emergence of Shigella strains resistant to first line antibiotic treatments such as ciprofloxacin. This study aims to describe the epidemiologic distribution of the most common Shigella species, and their antimicrobial susceptibility patterns to ciprofloxacin and nalidixic acid (NA) in Latin America. METHODS: Laboratory data from 19 countries were obtained through the Latin American Network for Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance (ReLAVRA) from 2000-2015. The Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute reduced susceptibility breakpoints for Enterobacteriaceae was used to interpret the disc diffusion tests for Shigella susceptibility to ciprofloxacin and NA. Negative binominal regression was used to analyze longitudinal trends of Shigella isolates antimicrobial susceptibility. RESULTS: 79,548 Shigella isolates were tested and reported between 2000-2015. The most common isolated species were S. flexneri (49%), and S. sonnei (28%). There was a steady increase in the proportion of S. sonnei isolates within the region(p<0.001). The average annual percentage increase (AAPI) in nonsusceptibility was 18.4% (p<0.001) for ciprofloxacin (baseline = 0.3); and 13.2%(p<0.001) for NA (baseline = 3). AAPI nonsusceptibility to ciprofloxacin was 13.3% for S. flexneri (p<0.04); and 39.9% for S. sonnei (p<0.001). Honduras, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Chile reported the highest increase in nonsusceptibility to ciprofloxacin among all Shigella isolates. CONCLUSION: There is an increasing trend in Shigella nonsusceptibility to ciprofloxacin and NA, including among the most common shigella species, in Latin America. This rise of nonsusceptibility among Shigella species to commonly used treatments such as ciprofloxacin is alarming and threatens the control and management of this currently treatable infection. Improved data quality, collection and reporting is needed in Latin America to respond effectively to the rising trends observed. This includes the need for quality isolate level epidemiological data; molecular data, and data on antibiotic consumption and use.

Arbovirosis emergentes y reemergentes transmitidas por Aedes en la Región de las Américas: implicaciones en materia de políticas de salud / Emerging and reemerging Aedes-transmitted arbovirus infections in the Region of the Americas: implications for health policy

[RESUMEN]. El aumento en la incidencia y distribución geográfica de las arbovirosis constituye uno de los principales problemas de salud pública en la Región de las Américas. La incidencia del dengue ha experimentado una tendencia creciente en los últimos decenios en la Región, donde se ha pasado de una endemicidad baja a hiperendemicidad. También, la incidencia de la fiebre amarilla se ha intensificado en este período, y ha pasado de una actividad restringida a zonas selváticas a presentar brotes urbanos. El chikunguña comenzó a propagarse de forma pandémica en el 2005 a un ritmo sin precedentes y llegó al continente americano en el 2013. Al año siguiente, la infección por el virus del Zika irrumpió también en la Región con un brote explosivo acompañado de gravísimas anomalías congénitas y trastornos neurológicos, hasta convertirse en una de las mayores crisis de salud en los últimos años. La inadecuada vigilancia de las arbovirosis en la Región y la carencia de pruebas serológicas para diferenciar entre los distintos virus plantean retos considerables. Sigue habiendo pocas evidencias científicas en respaldo de las intervenciones de control de vectores. El manejo clínico sigue siendo la piedra angular del control de estas enfermedades. En la actualidad, solo están autorizadas en la Región de las Américas las vacunas contra la fiebre amarilla y contra el dengue, si bien hay varias vacunas experimentales en fase de investigación en ensayos clínicos. El Grupo Mundial de Expertos en Arbovirus ofrece en este artículo un panorama de los progresos, los retos y las recomendaciones sobre prevención y control de las arbovirosis en los países de la Región de las Américas.

[ABSTRACT]. The increasing geographical spread and disease incidence of arboviral infections are among the greatest public health concerns in the Americas. The region has observed an increasing trend in dengue incidence in the last decades, evolving from low to hyperendemicity. Yellow fever incidence has also intensified in this period, expanding from sylvatic-restricted activity to urban outbreaks. Chikungunya started spreading pandemically in 2005 at an unprecedented pace, reaching the Americas in 2013. The following year, Zika also emerged in the region with an explosive outbreak, carrying devastating congenital abnormalities and neurologic disorders and becoming one of the greatest global health crises in years. The inadequate arbovirus surveillance in the region and the lack of serologic tests to differentiate among viruses poses substantial challenges. The evidence for vector control interventions remains weak. Clinical management remains the mainstay of arboviral disease control. Currently, only yellow fever and dengue vaccines are licensed in the Americas, with several candidate vaccines in clinical trials. The Global Arbovirus Group of Experts provides in this article an overview of progress, challenges, and recommendations on arboviral prevention and control for countries of the Americas.

Emerging and Reemerging Aedes-Transmitted Arbovirus Infections in the Region of the Americas: Implications for Health Policy.

The increasing geographical spread and disease incidence of arboviral infections are among the greatest public health concerns in the Americas. The region has observed an increasing trend in dengue incidence in the last decades, evolving from low to hyperendemicity. Yellow fever incidence has also intensified in this period, expanding from sylvatic-restricted activity to urban outbreaks. Chikungunya started spreading pandemically in 2005 at an unprecedented pace, reaching the Americas in 2013. The following year, Zika also emerged in the region with an explosive outbreak, carrying devastating congenital abnormalities and neurologic disorders and becoming one of the greatest global health crises in years. The inadequate arbovirus surveillance in the region and the lack of serologic tests to differentiate among viruses poses substantial challenges. The evidence for vector control interventions remains weak. Clinical management remains the mainstay of arboviral disease control. Currently, only yellow fever and dengue vaccines are licensed in the Americas, with several candidate vaccines in clinical trials. The Global Arbovirus Group of Experts provides in this article an overview of progress, challenges, and recommendations on arboviral prevention and control for countries of the Americas.

Keynote Address (November 2016): Zika Virus Disease in the Americas: A Storm in the Making.

More than 700,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKAV) disease have been officially reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) from 48 countries and territories of the Americas. The response led by the PAHO and partners suggests major lessons of this outbreak. A seemingly innocuous pathogen became the new villain, causing fear, economic losses and, most importantly, debilitating birth defects and neurological problems, reaffirming the well-known war principle of never to underestimate one's opponent. The ZIKAV tested public health capacities under the International Health Regulations, highlighting the need for continued investment in health security. Last but not least, the lack of appropriate tools was another reminder of the pressing need for innovative solutions to persistent problems. Latin America and the Caribbean have approximately 500 million persons living in areas at risk for transmission of ZIKAV. The fight against ZIKAV is not a 100-m race, but rather a marathon in which science and public health need to work hand in hand for the benefit of our peoples.

Zika Virus Transmission - Region of the Americas, May 15, 2015-December 15, 2016.

Zika virus, a mosquito-borne flavivirus that can cause rash with fever, emerged in the Region of the Americas on Easter Island, Chile, in 2014 and in northeast Brazil in 2015 (1). In response, in May 2015, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), which serves as the Regional Office of the Americas for the World Health Organization (WHO), issued recommendations to enhance surveillance for Zika virus. Subsequently, Brazilian investigators reported Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), which had been previously recognized among some patients with Zika virus disease, and identified an association between Zika virus infection during pregnancy and congenital microcephaly (2). On February 1, 2016, WHO declared Zika virus-related microcephaly clusters and other neurologic disorders a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.* In March 2016, PAHO developed case definitions and surveillance guidance for Zika virus disease and associated complications (3). Analysis of reports submitted to PAHO by countries in the region or published in national epidemiologic bulletins revealed that Zika virus transmission had extended to 48 countries and territories in the Region of the Americas by late 2016. Reported Zika virus disease cases peaked at different times in different areas during 2016. Because of ongoing transmission and the risk for recurrence of large outbreaks, response efforts, including surveillance for Zika virus disease and its complications, and vector control and other prevention activities, need to be maintained.

Late Maternal Deaths and Deaths from Sequelae of Obstetric Causes in the Americas from 1999 to 2013: A Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data on maternal deaths occurring after the 42 days postpartum reference time is scarce; the objective of this analysis is to explore the trend and magnitude of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes in the Americas between 1999 and 2013, and to recommend including these deaths in the monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). METHODS: Exploratory data analysis enabled analyzing the magnitude and trend of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes for seven countries of the Americas: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and the United States. A Poisson regression model was developed to compare trends of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes between two periods of time: 1999 to 2005 and 2006 to 2013; and to estimate the relative increase of these deaths in the two periods of time. FINDINGS: The proportion of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes ranged between 2.40% (CI 0.85% - 5.48%) and 18.68% (CI 17.06% - 20.47%) in the seven countries. The ratio of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes per 100,000 live births has increased by two times in the region of the Americas in the period 2006-2013 compared to the period 1999-2005. The regional relative increase of late maternal death was 2.46 (p<0.0001) times higher in the second period compared to the first. INTERPRETATION: Ascertainment of late maternal deaths and deaths from sequelae of obstetric causes has improved in the Americas since the early 2000's due to improvements in the quality of information and the obstetric transition. Late and obstetric sequelae maternal deaths should be included in the monitoring of the SDGs as well as in the revision of the International Classification of Diseases' 11th version (ICD-11).

Operational research to strengthen tuberculosis control in the Americas

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be an important global health problem, despite significant progress since the declaration of TB as a global public health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1993. Mortality has declined by 45% since then, with annual decreases of incidence and an estimated 37 million lives saved between 2000 and 2013. Countries have made a considerable effort to achieve the 2015 global targets related to TB within the context of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Stop TB Strategy. In spite of this, an estimated 9 million people developed TB in 2013, of whom 360 000 cases were co-infected with HIV and 1.5 million died from the disease (1). In the Region of the Americas, great progress has been made since the implementation of the Directly Observed Treatment Short Course (DOTS) Strategy in the 1990’s, and then of its successor the Stop TB Strategy in 2006 (2). According to WHO estimates, TB incidence in the Region declined 48% from 1990 to 2013, while prevalence and mortality were reduced by 57% and 68% respectively during this period. This has allowed the Region as a whole to reach the MDG and linked targets before the 2015 dateline. Nevertheless, there are big differences among and within countries, and some of them might not even reach the targets. In 2013 WHO estimated that 285 200 individuals developed TB and 17 000 died from the disease in the Americas, 31 800 were co-infected with HIV, and 6 900 had multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB). In that year, 77% of the TB cases were notified, leaving a gap of 65 000 patients not being detected. Most (68%) of the notified patients knew their HIV status, but only 50% of the MDR-TB cases were diagnosed. Results from the latest (2012) cohort analysis showed that 75% of new TB patients were successfully treated, falling short of the 85% target for 2015 (3)...

Leptospirosis in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: An Ecosystem Approach in the Animal-Human Interface.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone neglected disease that affects humans and animals, mostly in vulnerable populations. The One Health approach is a recommended strategy to identify drivers of the disease and plan for its prevention and control. In that context, the aim of this study was to analyze the distribution of human cases of leptospirosis in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and to explore possible drivers. Additionally, it sought to provide further evidence to support interventions and to identify hypotheses for new research at the human-animal-ecosystem interface. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The risk for human infection was described in relation to environmental, socioeconomic, and livestock variables. This ecological study used aggregated data by municipality (all 496). Data were extracted from secondary, publicly available sources. Thematic maps were constructed and univariate analysis performed for all variables. Negative binomial regression was used for multivariable statistical analysis of leptospirosis cases. An annual average of 428 human cases of leptospirosis was reported in the state from 2008 to 2012. The cumulative incidence in rural populations was eight times higher than in urban populations. Variables significantly associated with leptospirosis cases in the final model were: Parana/Paraiba ecoregion (RR: 2.25; CI95%: 2.03-2.49); Neossolo Litolítico soil (RR: 1.93; CI95%: 1.26-2.96); and, to a lesser extent, the production of tobacco (RR: 1.10; CI95%: 1.09-1.11) and rice (RR: 1.003; CI95%: 1.002-1.04). CONCLUSION: Urban cases were concentrated in the capital and rural cases in a specific ecoregion. The major drivers identified in this study were related to environmental and production processes that are permanent features of the state. This study contributes to the basic knowledge on leptospirosis distribution and drivers in the state and encourages a comprehensive approach to address the disease in the animal-human-ecosystem interface.